Pre-Foreclosure Market Update – Q3 2020

September showed record breaking sales in Philadelphia, but what about the dramatic spike in pre-foreclosure distressed properties? Does the foreclosure market threaten to haunt real estate values in Philadelphia?

Multiple realities of quantum physics

Market reports are complicated with what science fiction buffs might call “multiple realities” – especially true in our current national economy. You don’t have to understand quantum physics, but there are many sides to the story of current real estate market trends on the Main Line and in the greater Philadelphia area.

You’ve probably heard me say this before, analyzing real estate markets is a lot like watching the ocean. What appears to be calm water, can have cross currents and under tows to be aware of.

Let’s start with the good news!

September was record-breaking month for both number of sales and median sales price for Philadelphia County.

On the Main Line, demand continues to exceed supply with values on the rise and days on market declining.

Due to changing buying patterns due to COVID along with the exodus from New York and other dense urban areas our small, quiet Main Line townships have literally shifted into prime destinations.

What about October?

In October the number of showings and new contracts declined. However, all indications are that values remain stable in most areas.

Analysts explain “markets despise uncertainty” and it appears people were holding off on buying or selling until after the election.

An “undertow” of loan delinquencies

Looking backwards at September data one might think that it’s time to surf the big waves and catch the ride of your life.

However, there’s an ‘undertow’ most analysts reporting on real estate are not addressing – a sharp increase in loan delinquencies.

The extreme spike in the number of mortgages delinquent 90+ days or in pre-foreclosure is at a level we haven’t seen since 2009.

Mortgage delinquencies spike in 2020 due to COVID

The “backstory”

What complicates delinquent mortgage reporting in 2020 is the surge of mortgage forbearances entered due to COVID-19 CARES ACT.

Incorrect information and bad advise early in the COVID pandemic led to confusing a mortgage forbearance with a deferral. What also wasn’t clear was the impact on credit and ability to refinance.

Many owners did not know full “balloon” payments would be due at the end of their forbearance period and are in a difficult situation confused about what to do as their forbearance ends.

Could the delinquent property data be incorrect?

What the graph above doesn’t address is whether the spike in delinquencies could partially be due to incorrect credit bureau reporting of mortgages in forbearance.

For instance, ConsumerFinance.org advises checking your credit report if you have a forbearance as it should not be shown as a loan default;

“Servicers may report that your account is in forbearance. However, if you were otherwise current on your account and have received relief as defined by the CARES Act, your servicer or creditor is required to report your account as current”

What to do now?

As you can see, I’m a fan of analyzing data. However, when it comes to deciding the right time to buy or sell it’s important to look at the big picture of your goals. History has shown real estate values survive market changes in the long run. It’s all about what’s best for you.

Please contact me for a confidential consultation. We’ll look at the micro-market trends for your particular goals and location.

And if you know anyone facing problems paying their mortgage who wonders what to do now, it’s time to get help! For more information about short sales and options to avoid foreclosure, visit FightTheBank.org.

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